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宏观策略(股指期货)
– 今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下达
– A股高位窄幅震荡,热点依旧在快速轮动中。从指数点位看,已经接近我们预测的中性点位,市场情绪亢奋。

宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
– 特朗普:“我们希望”国会能在7月4日前通过税改法案
– 美国最新的一季度GDP修正值不及市场预期,美国经济下行压力增加,美元指数短期继续走弱。

农产品(豆粕)
– 阿根廷大豆销售可能在7月停滞,因减税政策到期
– 美豆产区天气良好,且市场传言中国从其它国家采购豆粕菜粕以应对中美贸易战,美豆及豆粕期价明显回落。国内昨日沿海油厂豆粕现货报价下跌30-50元/吨不等,成交一般。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
– Mysteel五大品种库存周环比增加1.14万吨
– 本周五大品种库存拐点出现,整体微幅累库,不过螺纹库存仍小幅去化。由于基本面矛盾的累积依然非常温和,现货压力并不大,预计钢价短期仍延续震荡格局。

有色金属(铜)
– 印度拟采取措施应对铜供应风险升级
宏观因素短期对铜价支撑增强,接下来重点关注库存边际变化,短期盘面或震荡偏强运行,策略上偏多思路操作。

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