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宏观策略(国债期货)
– 央行开展了3315亿元7天期逆回购操作
– 本期制造业PMI表现相对较好,但后续随着关税豁免逐渐到期,制造业景气度回升的可持续性存疑。基本面利多债市格局并未发生变化,7-8月债市走强概率高。

宏观策略(股指期货)
– 两部门联合发文引导社会组织吸纳毕业生就业
– A股上半年收官,板块结构差异明显,北证50大幅跑赢。背后是居民存款搬家中高风险偏好资金的入场。展望后市,下半年预计仍以结构性行情为主。

宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
– 美联储博斯蒂克仍预计今年降息一次
– 特朗普威胁对日本征收新关税,这表明贸易谈判进展并不是非常顺利,美元指数继续受到下行压力。

农产品(豆粕)
– USDA实播面积报告与季度库存报告
– USDA季度库存报告偏利空,面积报告偏利多,报告公布后CBOT大豆回落,近月尤其。国内方面,油厂开机保持高位,豆粕累库速度加快。

黑色金属(焦煤/焦炭)
– 吕梁市场炼焦煤震荡偏强运行
– 昨日盘面由于复产消息影响下行,关注后续复产实际进程。

有色金属(碳酸锂)
– 特斯拉北美首座磷酸铁锂电池工厂完工
– 需求端预期差带来反弹驱动,7月锂价运行中枢环比上移。

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