Late in September, Beijing introduced its most extensive stimulus package since the Covid-19 pandemic, which included interest rate cuts and focused support for the property sector. These measures ignited a rally in industrial metals, with iron ore hitting a five-month high and copper reaching $10,000 per ton as Beijing pledged to meet its yearly economic targets. The positive momentum carried into the following week as the metals industry convened for LME Week in London, while Chinese markets remained closed for the Golden Week holiday.
The rally has since lost momentum following the reopening of China’s mainland markets after the week-long holiday. Expectations were dampened by the National Development and Reform Commission’s briefing, which fell short of introducing new commitments to increase government spending. In this article, we will examine how various commodities have reacted to the recent stimulus measures.
Soybean Futures
Soybean and soybean oil futures declined sharply as the absence of new Chinese stimulus measures triggered a wave of selling across markets.
A highly anticipated briefing by China’s top economic planning body, held after the Golden Week holiday, concluded without any fresh commitments to increase government spending. This led to a steep drop in a key index of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong, while oil and other commodities also saw declines.
November soybean futures fell by as much as 2% to $10.1350 per bushel, marking the fifth consecutive day of losses. Soybean oil prices dropped by nearly 4.6%, the largest decline since July 26, following the downward trend in crude oil.
With fewer stimulus measures anticipated from China, market attention has shifted back to the supply side, focusing on weather conditions in South America. Ben Buckner, chief grains analyst at AgResource Co., noted that planting is picking up speed in Brazil and Argentina, the world’s first- and third-largest soybean producers.
Lithium Futures
Lithium carbonate prices in the China, Japan, Korea (CJK) market rose following an increase in GFEX lithium carbonate prices, according to sources, with sellers raising their offers to align with the Chinese exchange.
On Monday, September 30, the November (2411) GFEX contract closed at 79,750 yuan per tonne, reflecting a nearly 4% increase from the previous day and up from 76,950 yuan per tonne on September 27. The price rise was largely fueled by improved market sentiment after China's announcement of economic stimulus measures, which boosted demand expectations for lithium.
The combination of the GFEX uptick and renewed optimism led many market participants to revise their views on lithium carbonate pricing, with sellers in China now reluctant to accept transactions below $10.70 per kg on a Cost, Insurance & Freight (CIF) basis.
However, unlike lithium carbonate, the hydroxide market saw no similar response. Market sentiment remained bearish due to ongoing oversupply and weak demand for lithium hydroxide.
Iron Ore Futures
Iron ore prices tumbled from a five-month peak, while base metals also declined after China’s highly anticipated economic briefing failed to announce new government spending measures.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) officials offered little in terms of fresh stimulus, disappointing investors who had hoped for more substantial action as China returned from its week-long holiday.
Singapore iron ore futures dropped over 5%, reversing gains made in anticipation of the briefing. Despite the decline, prices remain up nearly 20% since late September, driven by earlier optimism that Beijing’s efforts to revive the economy could lift China’s struggling steel industry, which has been weighed down by a prolonged property crisis.
Investors continue to seek clearer signals that the government's promises will translate into tangible economic growth. Although NDRC officials mentioned accelerating spending, their statements on investment and support for low-income groups mostly echoed previous commitments.
Market Outlook
Despite an improving macroeconomic backdrop and the Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated rate cut that has helped stabilize sentiment, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election continues to dampen risk appetite.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, the unclear path of China’s recovery despite recent stimulus measures, and the rise of protectionism contribute to a cautious short-term outlook for industrial metals. However, a more optimistic view emerges heading into late Q4 and early 2025. Greater clarity on U.S.-China policy post-elections and a boost in manufacturing sentiment, driven by global central bank easing, are expected to provide support for industrial metals prices in the medium to long term.
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