Palm Oil

On the last week of January 2023, palm oil futures remained weak. Cargo surveyors SGS, ITS and AmSpec Agri said that Malaysia’s palm oil export for January fell as much as 26.4% to 26.97% MoM. According to Indian dealers, the biggest importer’s January import declined 31% in comparison to last month) and was the lowest in recent months due to its record-high inventories and weak demand.

China shared the similar situation with India, as a result, Malaysia’s export may continue to be restrained. In terms of production, SPPOMA said Malaysia’s Jan output fell 27.01% MoM, while UOB estimated it fell 14%.

Malaysia is still in its low production season, and Feb output is usually the low point in a year. With both small output and weak exports, palm oil inventories in January and February may stay at above 2 million tons. It is estimated that after February, both palm oil outputs and inventories will probably rise. For the domestic market, supply is sufficient, in the week ending Jan 27, commercial inventories were 1.031 million tons, up 52.2 thousand tons from two weeks ago and still a high level in the same period of the past five years.

Looking ahead, we don’t think palm oil stocks could decline significantly in February. Based on both domestic and international market situation, we hold our opinion unchanged that palm oil prices may stay weak and range-bound in the short term.

-Orient Futures Weekly Updates on the Fundamental Data of Agricultural Products. 06/02/2023
 

Soybean Complex

The raining season has ended in Argentina, and hot/dry conditions resume. On the other hand, while supply has dropped from Argentina, better precipitation appeared in major agricultural producing areas during the Chinese Spring Festival, which turned good/excellent ratios up to 12% as of Feb 1, 2023. Nonetheless, considering the conditions of both countries, BAGE held crop estimate unchanged at 41 million tons, while FAS and Oil World revised the estimate down to 36 million tons and 35.5 million tons.

In Brazil, slow harvest caused a slow start of exports, and Jan export was only at 850 thousand tons. Despite modest drought for several weeks in RS, crop conditions are good, and Brazil stands a good chance to realize a record crop production.

USDA released the WASDE reports on Feb 8, 2023.
“This month’s 2022/23 U.S soybean outlook is for lower soybean crush and higher ending stocks. Soybean crush is forecast at 2.23 billion bushels, down 15 million from last month on lower domestic soybean meal disappearance and a higher soybean meal extraction rate. While soybean exports remain unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million bushels, up 15 million.” - USDA

A Reuters survey showed that U.S. ending stocks for 2022/23 marketing year is pegged at 211 million bushels, Brazilian soybean production has stayed above 153 million tons, and Argentina’s production is pegged at 42 million tons.

In China’s market, it’s expected that the country’s first quarter imports are below last year due to slow Brazil soybean shipment. Crush recovered to 1.17 million tons and is expected to increase to about 2 million tons this week. For the week ending Jan 27,2023, domestic soybean oil and soybean meal stocks were 848.6 thousand tons and 524.3 thousand tons. Looking ahead, considering soybean imports and demand, in the meantime Shanghai Orient Futures Institute estimate that stocks will be built in late March or even April.

-Orient Futures Weekly Updates on the Fundamental Data of Agricultural Products. 06/02/2023

 

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