Rolls of galvanized steel wire mesh stacked on a concrete floor.
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宏观策略(黄金)
– 美国财长贝森特:贸易谈判的最后阶段出现僵局
– 周五金价震荡微跌,美国独立日休市海外市场交易较为清淡,市场聚焦关税暂缓期到期后美国对等关税落地情况,9日前仍有谈判在推进,主要是欧盟和日本还未与美国达成协议。

宏观策略(股指期货)
– 住建部:更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳
– 近期股市情绪持续升温,新题材涌现,使得市场顶住高估压力持续上涨。这种单边堰塞湖的状态,后续需要基本面回升来夯实行情。此外海外关税扰动仍不可忽视

宏观策略(国债期货)
– 央行开展了340亿元7天期逆回购操作
– 展望下周,预计资金面仍然偏松,债市做多动能继续积累,但长端品种突破尚需等待。

农产品(豆油/菜油/棕榈油)
– Mysteel数据:全国主要油厂大豆压榨预估调查统计
45Z税收抵免通过,关注7月8日听证会。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
– 6月下旬重点钢企钢材库存量1545万吨
– 反内卷政策预期带动钢价偏强,基本面仍有支撑,五大品种库存并未进一步累积。但随着基差的修复,加上外需风险犹存,钢价进一步回升的空间依然受限。

有色金属(碳酸锂)
– 6月智利向中国出口碳酸锂规模小幅回升
– 供应端整体压力有限。市场博弈的焦点或仍在于需求端,需结合现货市场的成交情况动态印证需求端实际成色。

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