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宏观策略(黄金)
俄乌“和平计划”中关键的领土问题就尚未达成一致
海外市场圣诞假期归来市场交易仍然较为清淡,周五金价上涨1%,白银价格折暴涨10%,白银逼仓交易导致空头被迫平仓,引发行情大涨,也说明逼仓行情进入到尾声。

宏观策略(美国股指期货)
乌克兰:袭击俄罗斯萨马拉州的俄罗斯塞兹兰炼油厂
假期后美股交易清淡,三大股指窄幅震荡,市场波动率显著降低。

宏观策略(国债期货)
央行开展了930亿元7天期逆回购操作
机构交易行为较为脆弱的问题正在得到缓解,长端品种正在筑底。

农产品(棉花)
日本11月服装进口进入淡季 环比大幅减少
截至12月11日当周,25/26美陆地棉周度签约数据强劲,不过,25/26年度美棉出口签约进度仍落后,关注后续需求改善的持续性情况。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
欧盟新的钢铁保障措施制度将于2026年7月1日生效
元旦假期前,钢价趋势性依然有限。虽然外围金属整体表现强势,但预计钢价仍延续震荡格局。成材尚未进入累库阶段,矛盾依然不突出,年初市场仍需关注出口政策变化。

有色金属(铜)
国家发改委:对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强化管理、优化布局
宏观面与资金面继续驱动铜价上涨,短期动能暂未看到明显减弱迹象,基本面与资金面阶段背离明显,预计铜价暂将偏强运行。

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