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宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
– 美联储褐皮书:经济活动略有回升,不确定性仍高
– 特朗普再度否认准备解雇鲍威尔,但是很明显对于鲍威尔的耐心有限,美元指数短期回落。

宏观策略(股指期货)
– 国常会研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作
– 7月17日股市缩量高位走平,市场消息面平淡。对于反内卷的交易有所降温。展望后市,依然需要观察政治局会议对国内经济的定位及前瞻政策内容。

宏观策略(黄金)
– 美国 6 月 PPI 年率 2.3%
– 受到特朗普可能解雇美联储主席鲍威尔消息的扰动,黄金剧烈波动,拉涨近1.5%后回吐涨幅,直接解雇鲍威尔一是缺乏正当理由,二是会对美元信用造成严重利空。

农产品(豆粕)
– 印尼将购买美国农产品
– 由于私人出口商向位置目的地销售12万吨大豆,且特朗普称与印尼达成协议、印尼将购买45亿美元美国农产品,CBOT大豆明显上涨。市场密切关注美国关税政策动向。

有色金属(镍)
– 印尼矿业采矿配额期限从2026年起将缩减为一年
– 原料价格走弱,沪镍下半年运行中枢或将下移

能源化工(原油)
– EIA商业原油库存下降
– 油价回落,EIA原油库存下降。

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