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宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
美国消费者价格涨幅超预期,但降息仍将如期而至
8月美国CPI符合预期,虽然同比继续上升,但是不妨碍市场继续维持降息预期,美元指数走弱。

宏观策略(股指期货)
国务院批复10个要素市场化改革试点
受美股甲骨文公司订单超预期影响,国内AI股强势引领反弹,市场成交放量至2.5万亿左右,仍有一定的多头动能。但总体上我们认为拉锯的行情仍将演绎。

宏观策略(国债期货)
央行开展了2920亿元7天期逆回购操作
新券发行导致的债市回暖逻辑是短期的,市场的调整应尚未结束,9月建议以偏空思路对待债市。

农产品(豆粕)
CONAB上调巴西大豆产量预估
市场关注周五晚USDA月度供需报告。CONAB上调巴西24/25年度大豆产量和出口预估。CPC预测未来几个月ENSO中性可能转变为拉尼娜现象。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
Mysteel五大品种库存周环比增加13.91万吨
钢价再度回落,本周五大品种库存继续累积,螺纹累库比较明显,且阅兵活动后,表需不升反降,低于市场预期。成材库存压力犹存,预计钢价近期处于弱势震荡格局。

有色金属(锌)
七地锌锭库存增加
内外宏观维持中性偏多运行,国内基本面偏空,海外库存持续去化,外盘结构性风险较高,海外库存真正见底前维持正套思路,沪锌的沽空逻辑或通过伦锌上涨来形成估值修复。

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