During LME Week, which took place from September 30 to October 4, market participants offered valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of key base metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin. Discussions focused on supply-demand balances, price trends, and the macroeconomic factors driving each metal's market performance.
Throughout the week, analysts and traders kept a close eye on broader macroeconomic factors like China's economic recovery, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical tensions, all of which could have significant implications for the base metals market in the coming months.
Slower Copper Mine Growth and Rising Prices
The copper outlook indicates a forecast of reduced growth in mine supply alongside an increase in prices in the coming years. According to Amy Gower, the head of metals and mining commodity strategy at JP Morgan, China's manufacturing sector has been the primary driver of copper demand over the past 15 years, helping to offset the current weakness in the country's property market. While China’s demand growth is expected to moderate slightly, coming in at 2-3% annually, it remains a critical factor for the global copper market.
JP Morgan anticipates a reduction in mine supply growth, forecasting an annual increase of just 1.7% until the end of the decade—down from the 2.7% growth seen in the 2010s. This slowdown is expected to drive the market’s increased reliance on scrap and secondary materials to meet demand. The firm also predicts a copper supply deficit for both this year and 2025, with prices projected to rise, anchoring around $9,500 per tonne.
On the concentrates side, the shortage of mine output combined with significant investments in smelting capacity has pushed treatment charges (TCs) to historically low levels. Gower noted that while smelter capacity has surged, mine supply has struggled to keep pace, leading to tight market conditions. Looking ahead, JP Morgan expects the 2025 TC benchmark to settle around $30 per tonne.
China and Indonesia Dominates Nickel Market
According to Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon, China and Indonesia dominate the nickel market, accounting for 75% of both supply and demand. Indonesia alone contributed nearly 60% of global nickel production this year, with Lennon expecting that figure to rise to 75% within the next five years.
Currently, two-thirds of nickel is used in stainless steel production, for which Macquarie forecasts a 5% growth over the long term. However, Lennon highlights that while stainless steel has historically driven demand, the battery industry will soon become the primary force behind nickel demand growth.
Regarding market dynamics, the Class 1 nickel segment remains significantly oversupplied, whereas Class 2 nickel is moving toward a deficit. Lennon predicts that nickel prices will remain stable, showing little movement in the coming year.
Zinc demand is expected to experience a slight rebound in 2025
Global zinc demand has remained weak this year, largely due to challenges in the construction sectors across Europe and Asia. However, StoneX forecasts a modest recovery in demand next year. Natalie Scott Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX, highlighted that demand will pose a greater challenge than supply in the coming year. "Despite China’s stimulus measures and interest rate cuts, we don’t expect to see a significant boost in demand until the second half of next year," she noted.
On the supply side, zinc mine production has hit a three-year low, following production cuts at major mines in key producing countries throughout 2023. These cuts were driven by declining zinc prices and rising energy costs, leading to record-low treatment charges (TCs) in the concentrates market. This tightness in the concentrate supply has raised concerns about potential shortages on the refined side. StoneX projects a 1.3% drop in refined zinc production this year but anticipates a 3.3% increase next year.
The company also predicts that higher London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc prices, along with demand growth in China fueled by stimulus measures, will help alleviate current supply pressures. StoneX expects market tightness to continue supporting prices through the end of the year.
Tin Prices Closely Track Copper
Tin prices closely track copper prices as both metals will benefit from the energy transition, Tin is the best performer of the base metals so far in 2024. The three-month LME tin price was $33,458 per tonne at the end of September, up by 32.9% from $25,184 per tonne at the beginning of January.
The global tin market continues to face supply-side challenges, with delays in deliveries from Indonesia due to licensing issues and shipments from Myanmar down by 44% since last year. Mine supply fell by 9% amid a drop in tin concentrates.
The International Tin Association (ITA) forecasts a deficit of 10,000 tonnes in the tin market in 2024 and expects the market to remain tightly balanced in recovery growth until 2028. It also predicts that current supply challenges are manageable and should ease in 2025.
Tom Langston, a senior market intelligence analyst at the ITA said, the current shortfall in production supports higher tin prices and he expects that to incentivize greater production levels in the coming year.
The ITA expects that demand for tin will continue to grow due to increased demand in the electric vehicle, solar and semi-conductor industries.
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