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宏观策略(黄金)
美国首申人数21.5万
金价反弹超过1%收于4100美金上方,美伊局势没有继续发酵,目前的军事打击有限,双方仍会谈判和外交途径结局,市场担忧缓解,油价下跌,后续美国仍会是谈判和军事施压

宏观策略(股指期货)
A股V型反转,沪指重回4000点
6月国内通胀总体水平保持平稳,但CPI不及预期,内需继续走弱。国内股市会继续拥抱确定性,AI内部轮动是必然趋势。继续看多科技行情。

宏观策略(国债期货)
6月通胀数据基本符合预取
在上游商品价格回落后,涨价主线仅剩硅基,PPI同环比基本在年中见顶。但通胀回落难以驱动货币政策转向宽松,债市走强空间也有限。经济K型分化格局下,债市仍以震荡为主

农产品(白糖)
巴西7月第一周出口糖和糖蜜22.39万吨
巴西6月出口糖同比减少7%,7月第一周日均出口量较上年7月全月日均出口量减少52%,显示出国际糖市现货需求疲软的情况。

有色金属(锌)
Kipushi锌矿二季度锌精矿产量创新高,达7.02万
韩国Seokpo炼厂发生火灾但实际对锌产量影响有限,等待进一步公布详细信息,伦锌借助宏观和消息面刺激突破前期技术压力位,符合我们长线偏多预期。

能源化工(沥青)
沥青炼厂及社会库存录得双减
短期沥青市场将维持成本驱动为主、需求端受天气压制的分化格局,后续需持续跟踪原油地缘风险变化、台风过境进度以及现货跟进节奏。

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