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宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
贝森特称不担心伊朗战争的财政成本
特朗普对于伊朗战争的表态偏向积极,短期TACO的可能性降低,市场风险偏好走弱,美元上升。

宏观策略(黄金)
伊朗最高领袖呼吁继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡
贵金属再度明显下跌,金价跌近2%,两年期美债收益率持续攀升,一度转为对美联储的加息预期,而存量博弈的背景下,资金流向确定性更高的原油及化工产品,贵金属承压。

宏观策略(国债期货)
央行开展了245亿元7天期逆回购操作
近期最可能成为债市主线的因素是通胀,随着时间推移,油价中枢抬升的概率在不断上升,待市场消化同业存款利率下调的消息后,短线做空的性价比略高于做多。

农产品(豆粕)
拉尼娜很快将结束,厄尔尼诺年中或到来
原油价格再度上涨,CBOT大豆期价收高,海运费上行,均令我国进口大豆成本增加。此外,近期市场对于3-4月进口大豆到港不及预期的担忧加剧,豆粕近月期价再创新高。

能源化工(PX)
3月12日PX市场日报
本轮行情在原料端有短缺风险和PX连续去库预期的影响下,PX作为没有社会蓄水池的液态化工品再度表现出超预期的弹性,短期PX大概率仍维持强势格局。

航运指数(集装箱运价)
中远海运宣布停止巴拿马该港所有服务
受强预期支撑,盘面短期难有较大下跌空间;但盘面已明显升水现货,乐观预期被提前计价,向上突破同样难度较大。叠加地缘情绪反复,预计市场将维持宽幅震荡格局。

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