Stacks of fine gold bars
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宏观策略(黄金)
美军7日对伊朗格什姆港和阿巴斯港发动空袭
金价冲高回落,此前受到美伊局势缓和的带动而上涨,但昨日美伊局势再度生变,美国对伊朗发起攻击违反停火协议,市场风险偏好再下降,美债收益率上行,黄金回吐涨幅。

宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
美伊双方在霍尔木兹海峡交火
美伊双方在海峡交火,引发市场对于达成协议预期降低,风险偏好走弱,美元回升。

宏观策略(股指期货)
文旅部:五一假期国内出游消费同比增2.9%
A股连续放量大涨,沪指逼近前高。当前市场情绪火热,低位板块也有所补涨。特朗普访华或带来更多情绪面刺激,推荐股指继续多头持有。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
Mysteel五大品种库存周环比减少1.33万吨
受五一假期影响,五大品种库存降幅明显放缓,卷板库存小幅增加。但相较于往年,今年并没有明显累库,短期基本面支撑犹存。但美伊局势和能源价格仍是影响市场的重要变量。

农产品(白糖)
截至5月3日,泰国25/26累计产糖1199.69万吨
泰国糖高产令其可供出口量较大;印度上调26/27甘蔗基准收购价,有利于稳定蔗农种植积极性。但厄尔尼诺气候令26/27及27/28印度甘蔗及糖产量面临较大天气风险

能源化工(LLDPE)
中国聚乙烯生产企业产量月数据减少(2026年4月)
由于5月仍是需求淡季,叠加地缘的不确定性,我们预计下游不会急于补库,在受海峡封锁直接影响的化工品中,PE期价或仍是相对偏弱的表现。

上海东证期货有限公司

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