Backdrop from gold and silver ingots, 3D rendering
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宏观策略(黄金)
美联储博斯蒂克:预计2026年不会降息
金价周一延续跌势,白银跌停,市场继续消化沃什被提名为美联储主席带来的利空,同时交易所上调保证金比例也在给市场降温,日内黄金价格一度触碰60日均线,而后出现反弹。

宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
美国1月ISM制造业PMI创2022年2月以来最快
美国制造业PMI超预期,市场风险偏好回升,美元指数走强。

宏观策略(股指期货)
A股剧烈调整,沪指险守4000点
除贵金属板块外,顺周期原材料分列跌幅榜前几名,而上述板块同属“通胀上行、大宗涨价、经济修复”这一逻辑串起来的一致性交易。逻辑松动后,上述板块全部大跌,拖累股市。

农产品(豆油/菜油/棕榈油)
ITS:1月1-31日棕榈油出口量环比增加17.93%
1月马棕出口数据增长,印尼2025年棕榈油出口同比大幅增长

有色金属(铅)
铅锭五地社会较1月29日增加约600吨
年前产业端对铅参与度继续下降,宏观影响主导铅价,年前基本面看不到显著矛盾,铅价或以震荡为主。

能源化工(原油)
伊朗表示愿意关闭或暂停核计划
油价下跌,伊朗与美国谈判导致油价风险溢价回吐。

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