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宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
鲍曼认为美国劳动力市场显现更多企稳迹象
美联储官员最新的表态对于劳动力市场持有乐观的观点,短期降息明显无望,美元指数回升。

宏观策略(股指期货)
2026年中国GDP增长目标4.5%-5%
跟随全球风险偏好回暖,A股大涨,科技股剧烈反弹。但伊朗形势仍不清晰,隔夜欧美股市重回下跌趋势,避险交易仍未完全解除。我们仍建议短期观望,等待右侧。

宏观策略(国债期货)
央行开展了8000亿元买断式逆回购操作
《政府工作报告》对债市的影响是略偏多的,考虑到政策风险明显下降,3月中上旬债市应以走强为主。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
政府工作报告部署2026房地产政策方向
2026年经济增长目标及宏观政策力度基本符合此前市场预期,增量空间比较有限。本周五大品种累库幅度依然不低,成材基本面压力犹存,但估值并不算高,仍处震荡格局。

有色金属(氧化铝)
巴林铝业宣布遭遇不可抗力
海外需求突然出现明显降低,出现较多贴水成交。

能源化工(燃料油)
科威特与巴林削减炼油厂产能
一旦霍尔木兹海峡同行情况出现松动迹象,高硫裂解价差可能会以十分剧烈的方式回落。

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