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宏观策略(黄金)
中东局势再添变数
金价剧烈波动最终小幅收跌,市场在4000美金关口展开博弈。原油价格短期下行空间有限,美伊谈判进展缓慢,美元指数高位运行,叠加美债收益率止跌回升,还是会打压金价。

宏观策略(股指期货)
6月制造业PMI录得50.3%
A股上半年收官,科创板再度普涨。展望下半年,在美国5家CSP资本开支未做下调之前,我们认为AI泡沫难破。下半年A股将高波长牛。

宏观策略(国债期货)
6月官方制造业PMI录得50.3,超市场预期
当前债市的主要矛盾是有效利空不足和做多赔率偏低之间的矛盾。若有效利空持续不足,债市大概率会继续拉估值、压缩利差。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
上半年土地市场K型分化
钢价延续震荡运行,供需基本面方面,钢价仍有一定压力,库存压力累积。不过钢价下跌至相对偏低估值,驱动有限,预计短期延续震荡格局。

有色金属(锌)
哈萨克斯坦跟进俄罗斯,全面暂停硫磺出口
伦锌现货升贴水持续上行,同时LME仓单集中度较高(出现一个50~79%头寸),近期关注伦锌升贴水变化,警惕外盘软挤仓风险。

能源化工(原油)
EIA:美国4月原油日产量攀至1393万桶
油价维持震荡,近几个交易日有企稳迹象。

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