Oil Barrels, Cash and Gold Bar
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宏观策略(黄金)
特朗普称美国将对霍尔木兹海峡货运收取20%费用
美伊局势紧张影响,油价再度大涨,美债收益率上行,贵金属遭遇抛售,金价跌超2%跌破4000美金关口,重回紧缩交易逻辑。美伊局势以及还会反复无常,加大市场波动。

宏观策略(股指期货)
国务院批复同意《扩大消费“十五五”规划》
A股再度受到资金去杠杆影响,出现普跌行情。我们仍然认为近期行情源于资金去杠杆叠加美伊冲突升级压制风险偏好所致,与强劲的中报业绩关系较小。回调不改中期趋势。

宏观策略(国债期货)
国新办举行新闻发布会,介绍上半年金融统计数据情况
国债期货震荡走弱,TL跌幅最大:一者,特别国债发行之前,券商自营做空超长债的动力较强;二者,股市大跌,固收+产品潜在赎回压力也在上升。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
300家钢企完成超低排放改造公示
钢价再度出现明显的回落,市场供需基本面压力依然较大。虽然铁水产量略有下滑,但减产节奏较为温和,难以扭转累库格局。虽然钢价估值偏低,但缺乏反弹驱动。

有色金属(铜)
铜陵有色:预计2026年半年度净利润同比大幅增长
宏观利空因素阶段抑制铜价,但短期相对偏强的基本面因素则支撑铜价,预计盘面短期震荡运行可能性更大,策略上建议观望。

能源化工(原油)
美国威胁打击伊朗“镐山”地下核设施
油价大幅上涨,美伊冲突持续升级,风险溢价显著上升。

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