FED The Federal Reserve System with jigsaw puzzle paper
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宏观策略(股指期货)
《求是》发文加快培育未来产业
A股缩量窄幅震荡,科技股依然领先。港股近期止跌回升,或迎来右侧配置机会。总体看国内权益风险可控,春季躁动可期。

宏观策略(黄金)
美联储洛根:货币政策独立性是根本
金价震荡收跌,白银走弱。节前资金逐渐减仓流出贵金属,美联储官员讲话捍卫独立性,叠加货币政策短期步入观望阶段,缺乏增量刺激。美国1月零售销售数据意外走弱。

宏观策略(国债期货)
央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告
市场消息面较为平静,股市波动不大,资金面略显收敛,国债期货窄幅震荡。短期市场存在上涨动力,不过追涨性价比不高,待市场上涨动力趋缓后关注做空机会。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
16家车企公布1月产销数据,12家销量同比增长
钢价延续弱势震荡,节前基本面压力加大,各品种累库压力上升,加上订单情况一般,市场情绪疲弱,均对钢价形成压制。但市场谨慎情绪也降低了节后风险,关注是否有低估机会。

农产品(棉花)
棉纱产销继续放缓,纺企开机略有回落
随着春节临近,纱布市场成交继续放缓,沿海地区布厂开机率下调,内地纺企开机有所下降,而新疆纺企大部分春节仍将维持较高开工率,目前纺企棉纱库存不高。

航运指数(集装箱运价)
全国主要港口严峻拥堵
建议近期以偏强震荡思路看待市场,操作上暂以观望为主。

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