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宏观策略(黄金)
黄金ETF持有量微降
金价震荡收跌白银高位回落,市场等待本周美联储降息落地,缺乏增量利多后步入盘整阶段,如果是鹰派降息落地则面临回调风险,市场对降息25bp已经充分定价。

宏观策略(股指期货)
中央政治局会议召开
11月中国出口大超预期,贸易顺差快速积累,前11月已超1万亿美元,对经济形成较强支撑。出口链或成为2026年增长最为强劲的板块。

宏观策略(国债期货)
11月中国出口增速超预期
短线市场调整风险或并未完全释放,但做多胜率和赔率均较此前上升。

农产品(豆粕)
上周豆粕库存略降
美国将我国采购1200万吨大豆的目标延期至2月底,关注今晚USDA月度供需报告。我国11月进口大豆810.7万吨,同环比国内大豆供应仍然充足,豆粕库存维持高位。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
中国工程机械工业协会:11月我国挖掘机开工率为57%
钢价震荡回落,市场走弱一方面由于政治局会议并未提出明显政策增量,市场预期转弱。另一方面在于双焦期价下跌带来的成本支撑减弱。短期价格仍有回落风险。

有色金属(锌)
七地锌锭社会库存减少0.43万吨
近期联储利率会议、国内经济工作会议、日央行会议连发,宏观面波动或有所加剧,多单建议高位部分止盈以兑现盈利。

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上海东证期货有限公司成立于2008年,是一家经中国证券监督管理委员会批准的经营期货业务的综合性公司。东证期货是东方证券股份有限公司全资子公司。公司主要从事商品期货经纪、金融期货经纪、期货交易咨询、资产管理、基金销售等业务,拥有上海期货交易所、大连商品交易所、郑州商品交易所、上海国际能源交易中心和广州期货交易所会员资格,是中国金融期货交易所全面结算会员。公司拥有东证润和资本管理有限公司,上海东祺投资管理有限公司和东证期货国际(新加坡)私人有限公司三家全资子公司。

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