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宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))

美联储官员Daly称今年可能需要降息两次以上

特朗普将大幅提高印度关税税率,二级制裁的威胁明显上升,因此需要明显注意未来政策动向,美元继续震荡。

宏观策略(股指期货)

上半年中国服务贸易逆差同比减少大幅减少

8月4日A股韧性超出市场预期,在周末谨慎情绪发酵后,仍能逆势上涨,表明当前市场风险偏好仍高。题材股轮番表现,市场依旧维持在高位易涨难跌的状态。

农产品(白糖)

菲律宾开启大规模糖进口大门,提振泰国出口希望

巴基斯坦政府正式下令进口20万吨糖;菲律宾政府批准进口42.4万吨糖。这在一定程度上印证了“目前全球尤其消费国库存偏低,国际糖价低位将吸引逢低买需增加”的情况。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)

199家钢企完成超低排放改造公示

钢价震荡略有反弹,近期关于阅兵期间环保限产的传闻再起,但仍需理性看待对实际产量的影响。近期成材需求仍季节性回落,不过矛盾不算突出,预计市场震荡略有回调。

有色金属(铜)

淡水河谷首席执行官强调铜业增长是战略核心

市场降息预期有所升温而抑制美元,叠加关税政策预期阶段消化中,预计铜价高位震荡可能性更大,短期需要关注海外矿山扰动风险。

DeepSeek的颠覆性模型在金融市场引发了巨大震动。R1的发布导致欧美科技股市值单日蒸发近1万亿美元,其中英伟达市值在1月27日暴跌5890亿美元,创下美国股市历史上最大单日跌幅。投资者开始质疑,在DeepSeek高效模式的冲击下,AI公司的高资本支出是否还能持续。

就连美国总统特朗普也对此发表评论,称这是美国AI行业的“警钟”,并指出“这是好事,因为不必再花那么多钱”。但他同时强调,美国必须保持对AI竞争力的关注。

更多内容,请浏览东证期货大数据平台繁微:https://bit.ly/46bcOMD

上海东证期货有限公司

上海东证期货有限公司成立于2008年,是一家经中国证券监督管理委员会批准的经营期货业务的综合性公司。东证期货是东方证券股份有限公司全资子公司。公司主要从事商品期货经纪、金融期货经纪、期货交易咨询、资产管理、基金销售等业务,拥有上海期货交易所、大连商品交易所、郑州商品交易所、上海国际能源交易中心和广州期货交易所会员资格,是中国金融期货交易所全面结算会员。公司拥有东证润和资本管理有限公司,上海东祺投资管理有限公司和东证期货国际(新加坡)私人有限公司三家全资子公司。

自成立以来,东证期货秉承稳健经营、创新发展的宗旨,坚持以金融科技助力衍生品发展为主线,通过大数据、云计算、人工智能、区块链等金融科技手段打造研究和技术两大核心竞争力,坚持市场化、国际化、集团化发展方向,朝着建设一流衍生品服务商的目标继续前行。

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