The growing popularity of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal Futures can be attributed to their widespread global uses. Staying informed about the latest market news and prices of these commodities is essential. The information provided is sourced from the Orient Futures Agricultural Products Weekly Report dated 14^th August 2023 and other sources.

Rapeseed Oil Supply & Demand

The spring rapeseed harvest in the northern hemisphere is advancing, narrowing the window for weather-related speculation, and providing clarity on potential new supply.

Recent Canada weather with widespread precipitation and stable temperatures has supported rapeseed maturation and yield potential, with further rain anticipated. Market expectations for Canadian rapeseed production range from 18.1 to 20.1 million tons. Meanwhile, impact of weather-related market factors has decreased due to weather conditions improving in US.

In China, East China’s major oil plants have reached313,900 tons of rapeseed oil in inventory, higher by 1,200 tons from the previous week. This is relatively high compared to recent years.

Weekly rapeseed crushing at coastal plants is down to 41,000 tons, and nationwide imported rapeseed inventory rose by 92,000 tons, standing at 251,000 tons.

Increased import profitability is leading to higher import volumes for September to November, ensuring a relatively sufficient supply. However, seasonal factors like the back-to-school season and upcoming holidays could impact the demand due to seasonal improvement in oil consumption.

Despite fluctuations, the outlook for rapeseed oil remains weak considering palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals. Monitoring weather changes and shipment arrivals will be pivotal ahead.

Rapeseed Meal Supply & Demand

In the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, the crop harvest is currently 4% complete, with the oilseed harvest just commencing, and the progress of the rapeseed harvest at 0.2%.

In Alberta, the rating for rapeseed’s good-to-excellent condition remained relatively stable at 42%. The estimated yield is projected to be 32.2 bushels per acre, which is an improvement over 2021 but slightly lower than that of 2022.

In the Chinese market, it is anticipated that China’s rapeseed imports for August will be approximately 310,000 tons, representing a significant decline compared to the first half of the year. Oil mill rapeseed inventory has increased to 251,000 tons, while rapeseed crushing volume has decreased to 41,000 tons.

Regarding demand, the price ratio of rapeseed meal to soybean meal has been expanding over the past month, rendering rapeseed meal more economically viable. Moreover, the anticipated surge in rapeseed meal demand during the peak aquaculture season has not translated into a substantial increase in its incorporation in formulations due to limited supply. This restraint aims to maintain the stability of the formulations.

The inventory of rapeseed meal is continuing to decrease, with 17,000 tons in oil mill rapeseed meal inventory and 15,600 tons in granulated rapeseed meal inventory in East China. This underscores an overall weak supply and demand scenario. In the absence of new driving factors, the trajectory of rapeseed meal prices is expected to closely mirror that of soybean meal.

Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal Prices

According to Barchart, Rapeseed Oil Futures price was at 8,984 RMB/ton on 13^th September 2023, whereas Rapeseed Meal Futures price was at 3,475 RMB/ton.