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美国铜市戏剧性闪电暴跌,贸易政策转向释放的剧烈波动性再次成为醒目的警示。 引爆点在于7月30日特朗普总统宣布的一项决定:对特定铜制品征收50%关税,但值得注意的是,原材料本身不在征税之列。这一决定导致美国铜期货在8月6日的尾盘交易中暴跌约20%,标志着此前数周持续飙升的市场发生了惊天逆转。

从创纪录高点跌至创纪录低点

这场风波始于本月初。特朗普在7月初的一次新闻发布会上首次提出对铜征收50%进口税的设想。这番随口言论立刻在市场上点燃了狂潮。交易员和企业预期关税即将落地,争相在8月1日生效日期前抢购进口铜,导致美国主要金属仓储中心爆满。需求的激增将美国铜价推至创纪录的新高,远高于全球价格。

然而,市场的疯狂涨势在8月6日戛然而止。白宫做出了令许多人意外的举动,放弃对精矿、阴极铜和废铜等加工程度较低的铜产品征税。相反,政府将50%的关税精准地施加在了一个范围更小的铜产品清单上,包括铜线、铜管和铜板。该关税还将适用于其他产品中所含的铜成分,例如电气布线和管道配件。

对行业的影响

新的、更有针对性的关税结构在国内行业内部制造了分歧。这项关税旨在保护美国的电子产品和管道配件制造商,因为它抬高了进口成品的成本。然而,对于矿商、冶炼厂以及那些寻求投资于国内新铜原材料生产能力的投资者来说,它并未提供任何保护。

这种影响立即反映在股市上。美国最大的铜生产商自由港麦克莫兰(Freeport-McMoRan)股价收盘下跌9.5%,而计划明年在亚利桑那州开工建设一座大型矿山的艾芬豪电气(Ivanhoe Electric)股价则暴跌17%。

市场不确定性的教训

政策的突然转向使美国铜价迅速与全球价格接轨,回落至每磅约4.50美元的水平,这正是7月初总统首次发出关税威胁之前的价位。

这一事件突显了基于政治言论进行交易蕴含的巨大风险。虽然最初的关税威胁令一些矿商感到兴奋,并助长了关于美国国内新投资的乐观情绪,但伯恩斯坦研究机构(Bernstein)分析师鲍勃·布拉克特(Bob Brackett)则呼吁保持谨慎。在7月9日的一份客户报告中,布拉克特指出,美国超过一半的铜供应依赖进口,且国内冶炼产能非常有限,因此实施广泛的关税在经济上是不合理的。他认为,这种关税“无法激励任何合理的经济行为,只会徒增美国制造商的成本.”

政策范围的意外变化证明,国家领导人的非正式表态可能给市场注入极端的波动性,而最终落地的具体政策可能与最初的宽泛威胁大相径庭。对于交易员而言,这是一个强有力的提醒:须保持高度谨慎,并要懂得区分政治姿态与实际落地的政策。

东证期货国际(新加坡)简介

东证期货国际(新加坡)私人有限公司是上海东证期货有限公司的直属全资子公司,也是东方证券股份有限公司的间接控股子公司。

作为持有新加坡金融管理局(MAS)颁发的《资本市场服务许可证》的机构,我司提供全方位资本市场服务,涵盖证券、场内衍生品、场外衍生品及杠杆外汇等多类产品。

东证期货新加坡是亚太交易所、新加坡衍生品交易所以及洲际新加坡交易所的交易和清算会员,为客户提供覆盖国际市场的综合交易服务。

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