Abstract financial image of a hand typing on a keyboard overlaid with digital stock market bar graphs and data visualizations.
Reading Time: 3 minutes

中国经济正呈现复杂而矛盾的局面。最新数据显示,在内部压力与全球贸易动态双重作用下,这个世界第二大经济体的发展图景显现出微妙裂痕。 当工厂产出引擎明显放缓时,零售销售却展现出超预期的韧性,于中美贸易关系悬而未决的休战期中,共同勾勒出一幅冷暖交织的经济前景。

分化趋势:工业生产放缓,零售销售反弹

中国国家统计局的最新数据突显了关键经济指标的分化。中国5月份工厂产出同比增长仅为5.8%,创下六个月来的最低增速。 这标志着增速较4月份的6.1%有所放缓,也低于分析师的预期,是自去年11月以来的最慢增长。工业产出的减速反映了持续存在的压力,其中包括美国关税的后续影响。

与此形成鲜明对比的是,中国社会消费品零售总额表现意外强劲,同比大幅增长6.4%,显著高于4月份5.1%的增幅及分析师预期。 这是自2023年12月以来零售消费的最快增长,主要受五一假期期间强劲支出以及政府补贴的消费品“以旧换新”计划的积极推动。延长的“618”线上购物节也助推了中国消费的意外增长。

贸易摩擦与通缩压力

尽管近期美中达成贸易休战,但此前关税冲击的影响依然明显。尽管中国5月整体出口同比增长4.8%,但对美出口却暴跌34.5%,创下自2020年2月以来的最大跌幅。 这一鲜明对比凸显了中国外贸对地缘政治摩擦的脆弱性。雪上加霜的是,中国上个月通缩压力进一步加深,表明经济内部定价能力存在潜在疲软。

房地产困境与投资谨慎

除贸易问题外,经济增长仍面临长期结构性阻力。中国房地产行业仍是重大关切领域,新房价格持续两年低迷,未见明显逆转迹象。房地产市场的积弱态势,正不断向整体经济情绪蔓延。 作为增长关键驱动力的固定资产投资,在今年前五个月仅同比增长3.7%,略低于预期,且较1-4月有所放缓。 正如一位经济学家所指出的,刺激措施在针对性施力的领域(如家电销售)似乎有效,但在缺乏直接干预的行业(如房地产开发)则继续挣扎。

前景与政策应对

政府方面已推出一系列刺激措施应对这些挑战,包括降息和大量流动性注入,旨在缓冲美国关税对经济的影响。令人鼓舞的是,这些贸易困境尚未完全传导至就业数据,5月份城镇调查失业率小幅降至5%。 然而,分析师们对整体中国经济前景仍持谨慎态度。尽管政府设定了全年约5%的增长目标,但许多分析师警告称,“美中贸易休战不足以阻止上月经济动能出现更广泛的损失”。

由于关税仍然维持高位,加上财政支持力度可能减弱,以及持续存在的结构性逆风,预计今年剩余时间内经济增长将进一步放缓。 中国未来经济动能的轨迹将在很大程度上取决于持续刺激措施的有效性、贸易关系的演变,以及政府解决深层次结构性挑战的能力。

东证期货国际(新加坡)简介

东证期货国际(新加坡)私人有限公司是上海东证期货有限公司的直属全资子公司,也是东方证券股份有限公司的间接控股子公司。

作为持有新加坡金融管理局(MAS)颁发的《资本市场服务许可证》的机构,我司提供全方位资本市场服务,涵盖证券、场内衍生品、场外衍生品及杠杆外汇等多类产品。

东证期货新加坡是亚太交易所、新加坡衍生品交易所以及洲际新加坡交易所的交易和清算会员,为客户提供覆盖国际市场的综合交易服务。

Disclaimer

We, Orient Futures International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (“OFIS”) (UEN No. 201831776Z), hold a capital markets services licence (CMS100869) from the Monetary Authority of Singapore for dealing in capital market products such as futures/derivatives contracts, and spot foreign exchange contracts for the purposes of leveraged foreign exchange trading, and is an Exempt Financial Adviser. For more information about OFIS, please check the MAS Financial Institutions Directory by clicking here.

All content, materials, information, data, statistics, features, research, documents or reports available on our website (including this article) which are financial in nature (the “Content”) are governed by our Terms of Use. By accessing, using or downloading any Content, you are deemed to have consented and agreed to the Terms of Use.

We distribute information/research (which may be prepared by us directly or produced by our foreign affiliated companies within the Orient Group of companies) pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. The information/research herein is prepared and distributed in Singapore and is intended for our clients who are Accredited Investors, Expert Investors or Institutional Investors only. If you are not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or Institutional Investor, you hereby acknowledge and agree that you are not the intended audience of all Content available on our website, and you undertake to immediately cease your access to any Content available on our website.

You agree to access and accept all Content available on our website on an “as-is” and “as available” basis. You agree that OFIS shall not have any responsibility or liability arising out of or in connection with, and you agree to waive the right to bring any claims or raise any complaints against OFIS in respect of any Content available on our website. OFIS shall also not be liable for any damage, loss or liability of any kind (whether actual, anticipated, consequential, special, economic or otherwise) caused as a result (direct or indirect) of the use of, or inability to access or use, the website, including but not limited to any damage, loss or liability suffered as a result of your reliance on the Content or our website.

OFIS does not make any representations, and hereby disclaim all warranties, express or implied, statutory or otherwise to the extent permitted by law, in respect of our website and all Content therein. To the fullest extent permissible, OFIS does not warrant and hereby disclaims any warranty as to the accuracy, correctness, completeness, reliability, timeliness, non-infringement, title, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of the Content.

All Content available on our website are general in nature and have been prepared without any consideration of your investment objectives, financial situations or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of any Content available on our website having regard to your personal circumstances before making any investment decisions. You should take into account your investment objectives and financial situation and seek advice from an independent financial advisor under a separate engagement if necessary.

订阅我们的周刊,获取最新市场资讯