As lithium prices slump, some Australian miners are considering scaling back operations, while others are moving forward with expansions or introducing new capacity to be ready for a future market rebound. Australia, now the leading global supplier of lithium—a crucial component in electric vehicles (EV) batteries—has been hit hard by the market downturn, with an oversupply driving spodumene concentrate prices down by over 80% from their 2022 peak to under $1,000 per tonne.
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Anticipating Future Price Rebound
Several Australian miners are betting that enduring the current downturn will better position them for a price recovery, which is anticipated by the end of the decade. However, with squeezed profit margins and competition from integrated Chinese producers, government support may soon be necessary.
Pilbara Minerals, which operates the Pilgangoora mine in Western Australia, is leveraging the financial strength it built during the lithium boom to proceed with expansions aimed at lowering unit costs. CEO Dale Henderson shared at the Diggers and Dealers mining conference that the company plans to maintain its disciplined approach as it ramps up production and continues to scale the business incrementally.
At the same time, Greenbushes, the world’s largest hard rock lithium mine—a joint venture between China’s Tianqi, Albemarle, and Australia’s IGO—has resumed full production. IGO CEO Ivan Vella recently stated that expansion work is ongoing, and the mine is expected to operate without constraints in the coming year, with slightly increased production guidance.
Pressure to Cut Output Still Building.
Mineral Resources, which runs the Bald Hill, Mt Marion, and Wodgina mines, announced in June that it would hold off on launching a new spodumene concentrate production line until a “sustained” market recovery is evident.
Arcadium, the world’s third-largest producer, indicated that it might have to consider shutting down its Mount Cattlin mine in Western Australia if prices don’t improve. The company has also halted spending on a Canadian expansion and adjusted the timeline for lithium carbonate production in Argentina.
This news comes after another round of cost-cutting by American lithium giant Albemarle, which has decided to scale back operations at its lithium processing plant in Australia due to the ongoing price slump.
Market Outlook
Nikkei reported, Australia accounted for 45% of global lithium extraction in 2023, according to a government report in June, which forecast the share to fall to 39% by 2026 as new sources in Zimbabwe, Argentina and other countries come online.
Chinese producers, meanwhile, responded to surging prices in 2022 by ramping up domestic lepidolite mines, a lithium-containing mineral that is more expensive to process, and increasing production from mines in Africa.
Citibank said in a recent report that it expects lithium prices to stay lower for longer. Operators outside China have began to scale back investment or production and Chinese producers were expected to follow, it said. Larger players in China had the advantage of being integrated with battery producers, said Citibank analyst Kate McCutcheon.
Warren Pearce, chief executive of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, said he was confident Australian miners can retain their market share as the industry matures. However, competition with China means targeted support from the government could be needed for some producers.
Hedging Against Market Risks
Singapore Exchange (SGX) provides options for hedging against risks. One important feature is the daily mark-to-market positions, which help reduce counterparty risk by enhancing transparency and security. Additionally, SGX offers trading opportunities across various products, such as the virtual car complex, enabling diversified hedging strategies.
SGX FM Lithium Carbonate CIF CJK (Battery Grade) Futures
The SGX Lithium Carbonate Futures contract follows the following specifications:
The contract size for Lithium Carbonate is 1,000kg multiplied by the Contract price, with a minimum price fluctuation of one-hundredth of a United States dollar, equivalent to ten United States dollars per Contract.
Trading Hours are from Monday to Friday, at these trading hours:
Trading Day
7:10am – 8:00pm (T-session)
8.00.01pm – 5.15am (T+1 Session)
7:10 am – 8:00 pm (Last Trading Day)
SGX FM Lithium Hydroxide Futures CIF CJK (Battery Grade) Futures
The SGX Lithium Hydroxide Swaps/Futures contract follows the following specifications:
The contact size for Lithium Hydroxide Futures is 1,000kg multiplied by the Contract price, with a minimum price fluctuation of one-hundredth of a United States dollar, equivalent to ten United States dollars per Contract.
Trading Hours are from Monday to Friday, at these trading hours:
Trading Day
7:10am – 8:00pm (T-session)
8.00.01pm – 5.15am (T+1 Session)
7:10 am – 8:00 pm (Last Trading Day)
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