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宏观策略(黄金)
美国总统特朗普表示:“与伊朗的谈判已进入最后阶段”
金价反弹,受到美国和伊朗可能达成协议的消息提振,油价下跌其他资产普遍反弹,但美联储会议纪要显示鹰派信号,战争和关税推动通胀持续上升的风险增加,美联储开始讨论加息。

宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
美联储会议纪要显示,更多决策者对加息持开放态度
美联储最新的会议纪要显示对于加息持有开放态度,这意味着政策边际收紧预期上升,美元维持震荡。

宏观策略(股指期货)
5月LPR按兵不动
半导体产业链再度大涨,形成对A股的托举。短期行情需关注美联储政策、美国AI公司财报、美伊等信息,但中期看国内股市上涨趋势仍未完。

黑色金属(动力煤)
1至4月份国家铁路发送煤炭6.79亿吨
考虑4-5月份进口缺失量持续,日耗环比季节性回升必然伴随煤价新一轮上涨。近日,印尼方面再度提出新的出口交易模式,或导致出口摩擦加大,支撑远期煤价。

有色金属(碳酸锂)
宜春就进一步加强锂资源矿山监督管理征求意见
考虑5-6月中游排产或仍在高位,策略上建议关注盘后回调后的低多机会。

能源化工(原油)
伊朗重申其对霍尔木兹海峡“管理监督范围”
油价大幅下跌,因媒体报道美伊接近达成协议。

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