Stacks of fine gold bars
Reading Time: < 1 分钟

宏观策略(黄金)
美军7日对伊朗格什姆港和阿巴斯港发动空袭
金价冲高回落,此前受到美伊局势缓和的带动而上涨,但昨日美伊局势再度生变,美国对伊朗发起攻击违反停火协议,市场风险偏好再下降,美债收益率上行,黄金回吐涨幅。

宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
美伊双方在霍尔木兹海峡交火
美伊双方在海峡交火,引发市场对于达成协议预期降低,风险偏好走弱,美元回升。

宏观策略(股指期货)
文旅部:五一假期国内出游消费同比增2.9%
A股连续放量大涨,沪指逼近前高。当前市场情绪火热,低位板块也有所补涨。特朗普访华或带来更多情绪面刺激,推荐股指继续多头持有。

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
Mysteel五大品种库存周环比减少1.33万吨
受五一假期影响,五大品种库存降幅明显放缓,卷板库存小幅增加。但相较于往年,今年并没有明显累库,短期基本面支撑犹存。但美伊局势和能源价格仍是影响市场的重要变量。

农产品(白糖)
截至5月3日,泰国25/26累计产糖1199.69万吨
泰国糖高产令其可供出口量较大;印度上调26/27甘蔗基准收购价,有利于稳定蔗农种植积极性。但厄尔尼诺气候令26/27及27/28印度甘蔗及糖产量面临较大天气风险

能源化工(LLDPE)
中国聚乙烯生产企业产量月数据减少(2026年4月)
由于5月仍是需求淡季,叠加地缘的不确定性,我们预计下游不会急于补库,在受海峡封锁直接影响的化工品中,PE期价或仍是相对偏弱的表现。

上海东证期货有限公司

上海东证期货有限公司成立于2008年,是一家经中国证券监督管理委员会批准的经营期货业务的综合性公司。东证期货是东方证券股份有限公司全资子公司。公司主要从事商品期货经纪、金融期货经纪、期货交易咨询、资产管理、基金销售等业务,拥有上海期货交易所、大连商品交易所、郑州商品交易所、上海国际能源交易中心和广州期货交易所会员资格,是中国金融期货交易所全面结算会员。公司拥有东证润和资本管理有限公司,上海东祺投资管理有限公司和东证期货国际(新加坡)私人有限公司三家全资子公司。

自成立以来,东证期货秉承稳健经营、创新发展的宗旨,坚持以金融科技助力衍生品发展为主线,通过大数据、云计算、人工智能、区块链等金融科技手段打造研究和技术两大核心竞争力,坚持市场化、国际化、集团化发展方向,朝着建设一流衍生品服务商的目标继续前行。

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