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宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
– 特朗普表示对普京失望 考虑给俄罗斯不到两周达成停火协议
– 特朗普表示缩短俄罗斯停火期限,意味着加速施压俄罗斯,但俄乌冲突困难性还是会超出预期,短期美元指数震荡偏强。

宏观策略(国债期货)
– 央行开展了4958亿元7天期逆回购操作
– 本周债市情绪将较上周转暖,但后续市场还有颠簸,趋势性行情暂时不会出现,做多需快进快出。

宏观策略(股指期货)
– 国家将对每年每孩发放育儿补贴3600元
– 全国育儿补贴发放制度的正式落地,表明政府在民生兜底领域取得又一项突破,预计每年财政支出超1100亿元,预计拉动社零增长0.2%。

农产品(白糖)
– 关于实施中泰海关“经认证的经营者”(AEO)互认的公告
-《中泰AEO互认安排》的实施有利于提升透明度,对进口糖浆而言,有利于堵住“洗产地”方面的漏洞;令市场对泰国糖浆进口问题的解决有所预期,后续需关注这方面贸易动态。

有色金属(锌)
– 七地锌锭库存增加0.54万吨
– 沪锌的回调主要由宏观主导,且本周宏观波动较大,基本面定价权较弱背景不变,关注下方均线支撑。

能源化工(原油)
– 俄罗斯暂时禁止汽油出口
– 油价大幅反弹,市场预期OPEC+将在本周末维持增产决定。

上海东证期货有限公司

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