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宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数))
– 美国与欧盟达成15%税率关税协议
– 美欧达成贸易协议,对于欧盟15%的关税,和日本一致,欧盟对于美国进行大量投资和购买美国能源,美元指数短期回落。

宏观策略(国债期货)
– 央行开展了7893亿元7天期逆回购操作
– 展望下周,市场情绪有望阶段性缓解,不过Q3风险偏好整体会偏强运行,后续债市的颠簸依然会存在。

宏观策略(股指期货)
– 10部门联合发文促进农产品消费
– 从美欧美日达成的关税协议看,特朗普政府最终态度仍有所缓和,这为即将到来的中美关税树立样本。此外本周即将召开政治局会议,需关注其对下半年经济工作的表述。

农产品(豆油/菜油/棕榈油)
– ITS:7月1-25日马棕出口环比减少9.23%
– 马棕出口数据表现不佳,国内油厂开机率预计提升

黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)
– 七大建筑央企前6月新签合同总额超5.9万亿元
– 由于煤焦期价持续上涨,加之成材基本面较为坚挺,钢价继续明显上涨。“反内卷”政策预期持续发酵,但钢价依然有高估风险,建议警惕短期拉涨后的风险。

有色金属(多晶硅)
– 关于调整工业硅等品种交易限额的通知
– 预计多晶硅短期将有所回调,可考虑通过期权的方式轻仓试空。

上海东证期货有限公司

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