Rapeseed Meal
For the international rapeseed meal market, the prices have not changed much. Additionally, the CNF price of Canadian rapeseed imported by China fell last week due to abundant yield.
From China, imports of rapeseed to Hong Kong have increased, while imported rapeseed crushing and rapeseed meal supply have increased. In contrast, the high prices of rapeseed meal have initiated a substitution effect, and currently, the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. As of February 10, the stocks of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills are at 10,800 tons, and the stocks of granular rapeseed meal in East China and South China were 52,200 tons and 1,000 tons respectively.
As imported rapeseed crushing increases, the stock inventory is likely to rise. The spot spread of soybean meal has narrowed significantly, but it is mainly reflected in the basis, and the futures spread has not changed much. As the weather warms and demand increases for water, if the pressure on rapeseed meal accumulation is still less than that of soybean meal, the futures spread between the two will reduce.
Rapeseed Oil
Global rapeseed production increased sharply, and export supplies improved significantly due to the recovery of Canadian production and abundant production in Australia.
Domestically, according to Mysteel agricultural data on February 10, the commercial inventory of major rapeseed oil mills in East China was 125,800 tons, an increase of 0.870 thousand tons from last week, and the current inventory is at a low level; rapeseed crush in coastal oil mills have also risen to 86,000 tons. Spot crushing profits from imported rapeseed performed well, and rapeseed arrivals in the first quarter are expected to be sufficient.
According to Mysteel’s survey, in February 2023, 9.5 ships have imported rapeseed at the coastal ports, and the volume is approximately 620,000 tons. It is expected that March arrivals will account for around 600,000 tonnes. As of Feb 10, rapeseed stocks at imported rapeseed oil mills rose to a high level of 435,000 tonnes.
With the gradual increase in the supply of imported rapeseed, the domestic supply of rapeseed oil will gradually loosen, and the inventory will gradually accumulate. In comparison with the fundamentals for palm oil and soybean oil, domestic rapeseed oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and we will continue to pay attention to the arrival of imported rapeseed oil, domestic demand performance and policy dynamics.
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